Lockdown Again??

In September 2020, India’s covid cases had peaked at 97,860 cases in a single day. After this, the cases gradually started to decline, reaching a low of 8,579 in February 2021. It was beginning to appear that we had finally won the war against the pandemic. However, since March, the cases have shot up exponentially, with over 1 lakh daily cases in mid-April, and the situation seems to be getting worse by the day.

Thousands of people are gathering in Kumbh Mela with no restrictions or social distancing, political rallies are continuing, and people are roaming carefree. Maharashtra has been witnessing 60,000+ cases every single day, leading the government to impose section 144. The situation has become so bad that the 10th board exams have been cancelled and the 12th and other competitive exams have been postponed. Hospitals are running out of oxygen, and patients are not being admitted because of a shortage of beds. Tackling the rising cases is not going to be easy. Some believe that lockdown should be imposed again, while some believe that doing so would destroy the livelihood of millions of people. After the first lockdown in march 2020, another lockdown may not be ideal, given the consequences of the first lockdown. Also, it is not clear if the lockdown played an essential role in decreasing the country’s number of active cases. For example, even after the imposition of lockdown, cases continued to rise, and they fell despite lockdown removal. Hence lockdown seems like the last resort for the government for curbing the spread of the virus.

Let’s have a look at the impact of another lockdown in the country. In Maharashtra, where the effect is worst, analysts believe that the state will suffer a loss to the tune of 40,000 crores. Maharashtra contributes the highest to India’s GDP among all states, at 14.2%, and a dent in its economy means a dent in India’s economy. The government has decided to take some radical measures like imposing section 144 in the state. Restrictions on non-essential shops’ functioning are likely to impact the discretionary retail segment, while e-commerce platforms are expected to be benefited, just like last year.

Last year, imposing a lockdown resulted in India’s GDP growth rate collapsing by ~24 per cent. Another lockdown might result in a similar outcome, which could leave millions of people unemployed. Last year, almost every country had suffered, but this year, India seems to have been the worst hit, which might mean that we will be growing slowly this year compared to other countries.

There is going to be a tradeoff between managing economic activities and curbing the virus. Workspaces will have to be managed, public transport will have to be staggered, and gatherings will have to be controlled. The key difference between this year and last year is that last year, the virus was new and unknown, but we are better equipped to deal with it this year. Perhaps the only way to permanently stop the pandemic’s graveness is to vaccinate as much of the population as possible. India has a goal to vaccinate a total of 500 million people, of which only 7% have been vaccinated. There have been many myths and misconceptions related to vaccines, spearheaded by false posts on social media. We will have to compromise for the greater good, but another lockdown is not the way ahead; it might end up doing temporary good but leave behind a permanent scar, which might take decades to fade away.